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The National Security Threat and Alert made known over the past couple of days, coupled with the closing of 19-American Embassies across the Middle East and Africa, is directly connected to very high levels of chatter captured by and between al-Qaeda leadership discussing attacks on the United States and American interests. Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawakiri, called for attacks as a response to the continued drone strikes by America in Pakistan and Yemen. It is standard practice of al-Qaeda to release a warning prior to a major attack. The nature of the chatter has led to calling for a much higher level of readiness by military forces in the Continental United States (CONUS), and specifically in the cities of New York and San Francisco. American Embassies will remain closed through this coming Saturday. What little that has been released by the Federal Government is unusual in itself for the string of warnings and alerts trickling out over the past three days. It begs the question as to how much more detail is being held tightly.
ADDITIONAL ITEMS FOR CONSIDERATION:
1. Ramadan ends this coming Wednesday at dusk. While this is a significant time in the Islamic community, a much larger commemoration which is lesser known is the celebration of Badr. Badr is the remembrance of the 624-AD defeat by Muslims over Infidels; which, in this case was a Jewish tribe. In the Muslim world this date and remembrance is a very, very big deal. In the Islamic mindset, attacks coincide with significant dates.
2. Radical Islam is a global franchise and far more sophisticated, organized, and alive than Mr. Obama has led the American people to believe. In fact, Mr. Obama has repeatedly told the American people that al-Qaeda is “on the run” or “al-Qaeda is finished and not a threat” or “the core of al-Qaeda has been disrupted and no longer the viable threat it had been.” During speeches on Jan 24, 2012; April 30, 2012; May 2, 2012; May 23, 2012; and September 30, 2012; Mr. Obama made such claims. These dates are not counting those speeches by the vice-president, Mr. Biden who likewise voiced similar statements. The view of the Radical Islamic threat held by Mr. Obama and his colleagues throughout sensitive positions in the Executive Branch of government, including the intelligence community, has been unrealistic and purposefully deceptive to the American people. Likewise, Mr. Obama has failed our allies and the agreements of protection we historically extended to our allies.
3. As an example of the growing sophistication and strength of al-Qaeda is the recent prison breaks in Iraq, Libya, and Pakistan. These break-outs were well orchestrated and executedwith 2,000 released prisioners.
4. The United States of America is perceived as rapidly becoming weaker and less respected throughout the world. This is a new and uncharted position for both America and the world. We are in a very dangerous place to have arrived as a Nation. We are not respected or feared by the bad guys who historically were kept in check by American military and intelligence gathering. Our strong financial standing in the world also was a positive position from which we could negotiate and/or have influence. The actions of Russia’s Putin, over the Snowden affair and asylum, is indicative of the loss of respect, and lack of fear of reprisal from the United States of America. Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah both are well aware of the steady decline of American influence.
5. The wave of various threats; i.e.; cyber-terrorism or otherwise should continue until September 11th, 2013, at which time threat assessments should be formally conducted for both home (Continental United States) and our territories, interest, and embassies across the world. This would include the borders with Canada to our north, and Mexico to our south.
LYLE J. RAPACKI, Ph.D.
Protective Intelligence and Assessment Specialist
Consultant at Behavioral Analysis and Threat Assessment
Private-Sector Intelligence Analyst
U.S. Border Intelligence Group